COVID 19 aND TROPIC AT RUISLIP
Covid – an interpretation of statistics.
Some people seem to cancel their ticket reservations for fear of contracting Covid at a gig. Below are my thoughts, coupled with some maths which I hope I have near enough. All information taken from trusted sources (and NOT say Facebook).
All figures and information considered correct at 29th November.
I would mention that I have had two jabs (3rd due soon) and to the best of my knowledge I have not had Covid.
Since Tropic’ re-opened on 3rd September I have personally greeted over 2,000 customers, I have touched each one (stamped hand) and spoken either briefly or at length in some cases to just about everyone. I see almost everybody in and am stood saying goodnight to almost everyone as they leave. I think the fact I feel at a low risk is down to the demographic of the customers…read on.
Tropic’ attracts a more “mature” audience; I would suggest the AVERAGE age is around 60. Sure some are under, but a heck of a lot are over 60, myself included.
According to the Office of National Statistics figures for October/November 2021 the percentage of the population getting a positive test for Covid is as follows
Age 70+ 0.5%
Age 50-69 1.1%
For younger, school age, children it is between 3.7% and 3.5%.
It follows that that headline figure you see is mainly made up of younger people, you are more likely to catch Covid from your grand-children that at Tropic’ it would appear.
To start with I would mention that most people coming to shows travel less than 3 miles.
The London Borough of Hillingdon as at 23rd November was showing an infection rate of 356 per 100,000 people, or 0.35%, then if you take that 0.35% and combine it with the fact that the vast majority of these people will probably be in the younger, school age, bracket (see above) you can see how the chances of somebody coming to a show with Covid do seem to be small.
BUT THEN you need to also take in to account the human factor.
I do not know of anyone who has had Covid and had zero symptoms. The experts tell us this is entirely possible and I believe them, but I just do not know of anyone that has.
So if somebody who is potentially coming to a show feels unwell the first thing they seem to do is cancel their ticket. “Please cancel, I am feeling unwell” is cited quite often, people feel a responsibility to themselves AND OTHERS IT SEEMS, it goes with the age group, as we get older we become more aware of our own, and others, mortality it seems!
I would suggest the majority of those cancelling citing health reasons actually end up not having Covid, they are just being responsible.
Then take in to account the vaccinations. Statistics show that if you have had the vaccinations offered you are much less likely to catch and also become very ill with Covid.
When I suggested in a mail-shot the government might bring in vaccine “Passports” for venues such as Tropic’ only a handful of people said to me they were not having the vaccine under any circumstances, there was not a mass protest (not that I could do anything about it!) so I would SUGGEST that the vast majority of people at shows are vaccinated, indeed, in conversations I have had, I have not spoken to one person who has said they had not had a vaccine at all.
Finally people at a Tropic gig tend to stand in their own groups. Apart from a walk to the bar and back not a massive amount of mixing goes on, so you are with the same people for most of the evening, people I assume you “know” are OK.
My view is that the statistics show that chances are very low if you behave just as normal. Of course your chances will be reduced if you stay at home inside your house, but then so will your enjoyment of life.
This is my personal interpretation of the chances of catching Covid at a Tropic’ gig, you may have different views and that is fine! For sure the room is not ideal with only minimal ventilation but we do what we can...